Thursday, November 20, 2014

19 Other Notable Games and Predictions

I'd make a joke about how the unranked teams matter too, but my own team will soon be joining the unranked level at the rate they're going, so I'll avoid it this week. Anyway, I gathered a list of 19 games not involving ranked teams that I have my eye on for one reason or another.

Northern Illinois at Ohio
Not too sure about this one to be quite honest, it's just a throw of the dart for me. And my dart throw says Northern Illinois wins a shootout.
My Call: Northern Illinois 37, Ohio 34

Bowling Green at Toledo
Both of these teams can score a ton and both are better at home than away. Advantage Toledo.
My Call: Toledo 41, Bowling Green 38

UTEP at Rice
With very little doubt as to who the best team in Conference USA and it looking like Louisiana Tech is perhaps the second best team in the conference, we're more at a debate as to who the third best is. These two teams both come in with 6-4 overall records, 4-2 in conference play. We like Rice to leave 7-4 and 5-2 in the standings.
My Call: Rice 27, UTEP 19

Air Force at San Diego State
Thinking that Air Force gets caught looking ahead to next weekend's visit from Colorado State and gets tripped up here by the Aztecs.
My Call: San Diego State 34, Air Force 30

Eastern Kentucky at Florida
It's official, Will Muschamp will be relieved of his duties as Florida's head coach at the end of the regular season. Can the Gators become bowl eligible? They need one more win to do that; and this is somewhat of a tricky test after losing in overtime to South Carolina on Saturday. My guess is the Gators win, but Eastern Kentucky is a team that's 9-2 overall and 5-1 in Ohio Valley Conference play, so Florida can't afford to completely overlook them.
My Call: Florida 30, Eastern Kentucky 14

South Alabama at South Carolina
Typical South Carolina this year would be to figure out a way to lose a game like this and then win on the road against Clemson the following week. Except there's one flaw here, South Alabama isn't good enough to beat even this mediocre Gamecocks club. Bowl eligibility happens with this win. The defense won't always be great, but the offense should light it up.
My Call: South Carolina 49, South Alabama 20

Northwestern at Purdue
Not sure how Northwestern went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame, but they did. I'll say they go into West Lafayette and beat Purdue as well. That said, the Wildcats are a bit inconsistent, so a letdown wouldn't shock me, hence I'm picking a close game.
My Call: Northwestern 30, Purdue 24

Penn State at Illinois
Real shot for the Illini to keep bowl hope alive facing a Penn State team that could be looking ahead to its game with Michigan State next weekend. That said, I just don't trust Illinois.
My Call: Penn State 16, Illinois 14

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest
Gotta admit it, Virginia Tech deserves credit for their win over Duke. Frank Beamer pulled off one more surprise. It wouldn't be a surprise if they win here and become bowl eligible. This will be one of those games where the Hokies win with defense.
My Call: Virginia Tech 21, Wake Forest 13

Louisville at Notre Dame
Very similar teams go at it here. Notre Dame is trying to bounce back from a surprising loss to Northwestern while Louisville is looking to make it two straight road victories following that tough home loss to Florida State. Because I think the Irish have a better QB and know they're at home, I'll take them to bounce back.. barely.
My Call: Notre Dame 24, Louisville 23

Maryland at Michigan
Another game where I'm just gonna be throwing the dart and hoping for the best. God only knows why, but it landed on Michigan. They need this game more than the Terps, who are already bowl eligible. The Wolverines could still become bowl eligible even if they lose this game, but to do so, they'd need to beat Ohio State on the road. That's very likely not gonna happen. I expect them to bring their full focus to this one and become bowl eligible here.
My Call: Michigan 27, Maryland 24

Syracuse at Pittsburgh
James Connor can just bulldoze his way through the Syracuse defense and set up a game at Miami where it's win and become bowl eligible or lose and stay home for bowl season.
My Call: Pittsburgh 26, Syracuse 14

South Florida at Memphis
USF is so bad that it almost lost to SMU team that is some kind of awful. Memphis should get it done here without much of an issue.
My Call: Memphis 34, South Florida 17

Stanford at California
An upset wouldn't surprise me at all in this one, but I just don't trust Cal's defense quite enough to pull it off. Cardinal by a couple.
My Call: Stanford 30, California 28

Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette
Rajin' Cajun fever has hit the Sun Belt Conference once again. Louisiana-Lafayette didn't get off to the best start this year due in part to a tough early part of the schedule, but they sure have figured it out in conference play as they enter this game with a 6-0 conference mark. They leave it with a 7-0 conference mark and looking solid to make it a perfect 8 for 8 next week.
My Call: Louisiana-Lafayette 37, Appalachian State 23

Miami (FL) at Virginia
Bad spot for Miami after blowing it against Florida State, just don't know if I trust the Cavs to be able to take full advantage of what should be a vulnerable ball club. I'll answer myself... I don't.
My Call: Miami (FL) 23, Virginia 20

Cincinnati at Connecticut
Being an Auburn fan, I have seen Tommy Tuberville teams lose games like this. And they do have a poor enough defense to where UConn should stand a chance in this one. But I do think Gunner Kiel should do enough to keep the Huskies at bay.
My Call: Cincinnati 38, UConn 27

Boise State at Wyoming
Altitude shouldn't be too much of an issue for Boise State. They'll come out of Laramie with a win.
My Call: Boise State 27, Wyoming 21

Oregon State at Washington
Shocker of the week this last weekend was pulled by the Beavers; upsetting then #6 Arizona State 35-27 in Corvalis. This one is in Seattle though, and the Huskies won't want to be an under .500 team in the first season of new head coach Chris Peterson. They'll do just enough to skate past.
My Call: Washington 28, Oregon State 23

Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)

I know AP Poll rankings may not matter, but I don't want to wait till Tuesday to start making picks, so I use them instead of the College Football Playoff rankings that actually matter. Anyway, I went 25-5 this past weekend with predictions, which puts me at 278-98 on the season. Let's hope for some good things this week on the prediction front as well... and hopefully an Auburn win dammit!

Boston College at #1 Florida State
Early deficits for FSU thus far haven't been a problem, as they did it again this past weekend, erasing a 23-7 second quarter deficit in rallying to defeat rival Miami 30-26. With that in mind, I'm sure the Noles wouldn't mind a game where they get off to a better start and play from ahead. This is a game where I think exactly that can and will happen. It will make for a stress free fourth quarter and win number 27 in a row for this program. My Call: Florida State 31, Boston College 13

Western Carolina at #2 Alabama
In what will be nothing more than a tuneup for the Iron Bowl showdown for Auburn which isn't looking as tough for the Tide as it did maybe a month ago, they'll jump on the Catamounts early and often. Then the breaks will be hit some in the second half, you could see some of their bench get some playing time and it'll be smooth sailing.
My Call: Alabama 45, Western Carolina 0

Colorado at #3 Oregon
The Ducks appear to be in fantastic position to make the first ever College Football Playoff. The Buffaloes are not going to be the team to spoil that as their defense stands no chance against Marcus Mariotta and Co. My Call: Oregon 52, Colorado 17

Vanderbilt at #4 Mississippi State
Although the loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa hurts a bit, Mississippi State should focus on the big picture and realize they can still accomplish their goals if they can take care of their own business from here on out. The Egg Bowl showdown in Oxford with in-state rival Ole Miss won't be an easy game by any stretch; and although there could be a bit of a letdown to start this one after Saturday's loss, I expect the Bulldogs to bounce back and take care of business here.
My Call: Mississippi State 28, Vanderbilt 10

Oklahoma State at #6 Baylor
From playing defending national champion Florida State tough in the season opener to not playing in a bowl game? That's looking like the story for head coach Mike Gundy and his Oklahoma State Cowboys. They look terrible these days and a trip to Waco to take on a high-powered Baylor offense is not the medicine that will cure what ails them. Baylor wins this one BIG. My Call: Baylor 58, Oklahoma State 14

Indiana at #7 Ohio State
Ohio State got all they wanted from Minnesota on Saturday, but they were able to prevail by a touchdown. Now it's back home for them against an Indiana team struggling mightily. They haven't won a B1G (Big 10) conference game and haven't won any game since beating North Texas all the way back on October 4th. Neither of those streaks ends here.  My Call: Ohio State 48, Indiana 14

#8 Ole Miss at Arkansas
Off the proverbial schnide; that's the way Arkansas and coach Bret Bielema have to feel after Saturday's 17-0 win over the LSU Tigers. That win snapped what was a 13 game SEC losing streak to begin Bielema's Arkansas coaching career and what was a 17 game overall losing streak in conference play for them going back to 2012. As crazy as it sounds, I do believe they can make it two in a row. However, I don't think they will. This will be a close game and a massive defensive struggle, but having an off week to deal with a couple tough losses to LSU and Auburn as well as tough injury losses will help the Rebels out and they'll squeak by in Fayetteville. My Call: Ole Miss 17, Arkansas 16

Charleston Southern at #9 Georgia
Like Auburn, Alabama and a few other SEC teams, Georgia is also venturing out of conference this week to play a FCS school. The Bulldogs will welcome Charleston Southern to Athens. The Buccaneers already made one trip into SEC territory, which ended in a close 21-20 loss to Vanderbilt. This time, they won't come nearly as close to winning. Bulldogs big. My Call: Georgia 45, Charleston Southern 7

Rutgers at #10 Michigan State
In beating Indiana, Rutgers became bowl eligible with a victory on Saturday. Good thing they did since beating the Spartans in East Lansing won't be happening for them. My Call: Michigan State 31, Rutgers 14

#24 USC at #11 UCLA
Stunning upset of Arizona State courtesy of Oregon State has put UCLA in the driver's seat for the Pac-12 South and to get another shot at Oregon in what would be the Pac-12 Championship Game. First things first, though. They need to win their final two games in order to make that happen, and it starts with the Battle of Los Angeles with inner city rival USC invading the Rose Bowl. Of course the Trojans have their own plans of taking the Pac-12 South title, but they not only need a win here, but would also need ASU to trip up once more. In this game which I expect to be the closest between the two in eight years, I'll take the Bruins to slip past the Trojans as USC has shown they don't do a wonderful job of closing out games this year.
My Call: UCLA 26, USC 23

#12 Kansas State at West Virginia
Thursday night games can tend to bring out crazy games and West Virginia has had a couple weeks to stew about a couple tough losses in a row to TCU and Texas. That makes them the pick for me. It won't be easy though since my guess is Kansas State will see this game as a better chance to win one of the two tough road games they have left than the trip to Waco to play Baylor in a couple weeks.
My 
Call: West Virginia 31, Kansas State 27

Washington State at #13 Arizona State
If my Auburn Tigers weren't the biggest losers this past weekend, it was probably the Sun Devils as their College Football Playoff hopes have very likely gone down the toilet with that loss to a mediocre Oregon State team. They can still win the Pac-12 South though and set up a conference title game with Oregon, which would most likely take place at Autzen Stadium. They need to win here and next week in the Territorial Cup battle against in-state rival Arizona in Tucson. Step number one gets accomplished. ASU gets a bounce back performance and takes down Washington State.
My Call: Arizona State 34, Washington State 21

#14 Wisconsin at Iowa
A trip to Kinnick Stadium won't be an easy chore for the Badgers after coming off a big, emotional win over Nebraska, but I think they have what it takes to get in the right mindset and overcome what should be a hostile Iowa City crowd. Melvin Gordon showed why he should be in the Heisman conversation with that 400+ yard, 4 touchdown performance against the Huskers. And he'll help the Badgers grind out a tough victory here.My Call: Wisconsin 27, Iowa 21

#15 Arizona at #20 Utah
What is a Ute? They're still trying to figure that question out in the movie My Cousin Vinny. I won't figure out the answer myself, but they are playing host to the Arizona Wildcats. This serves as a de facto elimination game in the Pac-12 South race. Both teams would still need a lot to happen even with a win, but if you don't win here, hopes are gone. And which team loses hope? I'm gonna say Arizona does. Utah is the better defensive team and is at home.My Call: Utah 23, Arizona 20

#18 Marshall at UAB
Similar theme to this one as there has been to essentially every Marshall game this year... Rakeem Cato has another outstanding performance and the Herd win big.
My Call: Marshall 38, UAB 21

#19 Missouri at Tennessee
Upset! Although a couple of Vols players are being investigated on possible rape allegations, I like the way they're playing. Freshman QB Joshua Dobbs is playing well and their defense has what it takes to slow down the Missouri offense. It'll be close, but I'm taking Tennessee and as a result, they become bowl eligible.My Call: Tennessee 19, Missouri 16

Minnesota at #21 Nebraska
Sucks when you get embarrassed the way Nebraska did in Madison, but you can find out a lot about yourselves as a team in the next game. Will the Huskers bounce back or stay down? We're betting on a bounce back from Ameer Abdullah and Co.
My Call: Nebraska 31, Minnesota 24

New Mexico at #22 Colorado State
Only possible thing I could see keeping Colorado State from winning this game is themselves. They can't look past the Lobos with a trip to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force the following week. That won't happen. The Rams win BIG.
My Call: Colorado State 38, New Mexico 13

Kansas at #23 Oklahoma
Fantastic effort by Kansas in very nearly taking down fourth ranked TCU, but they just weren't able to finish what they started in a 34-30 loss. I think they'll put forth another solid effort here, but they're on the road here and are still overwhelmed in the talent department even by an Oklahoma team that's been a bit of a disappointment . OU gets the victory.My Call: Oklahoma 34, Kansas 14

North Carolina at #25 Duke
Duke is at home and is the team capable of getting the stops when needed. UNC is neither.
My Call: Duke 27, North Carolina 20

Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (vs. Samford)

Ugly. That would be the one word to describe Auburn's performance on the road against Georgia, which dropped them to 7-3 overall and 4-3 in SEC games. This loss ended any slim hopes Auburn may have still had at winning an SEC West title and of course, any College Football Playoff chances. Now all the team can do is play out the final two regular season games, beginning at home with the Samford Bulldogs. Samford will be the fourth team nicknamed the Bulldogs Auburn will play this season. Auburn hasn't fared too well against teams with said nickname, only going 1-2. The only win over the Bulldogs for Auburn was over Louisiana Tech; which doesn't make up for blowout losses to Georgia and Mississippi State. Anyway, to get back to Samford, they enter this game 7-3 on the season and 5-2 in Southern Conference play, which places them in a tie for 2nd with Western Carolina. They hold the tiebreaker having beaten Western Carolina head-to-head. The Southern Conference is part of the FCS division, so yes, Auburn is going outside the FBS, giving in-state school Samford (located in Birmingham) a nice check to help out their athletic program in return for playing a game at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn and Samford have met 27 times on the gridiron, with Auburn holding the edge 26-0-1. The lone tie came in 1927 by a score of 9-9. Most of the history between the two teams occurred from the early 1900s to mid 1940s, when they met 24 times. They've only met three times since then, the last meeting being in 2011 in which Auburn shook off a poor start en route to a 35-16 victory at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

As I just stated, Samford is 7-3 on the season. Their most recent game was a 20-17 win on the road over The Citadel in a game which Denzel Williams ran one in from two yards out with 17 seconds left in the game to give the Bulldogs the victory in what was a seesaw affair. Aside from this win, Samford owns home victories over Division II Stillman College, VMI, Mercer, Concordia and Western Carolina as well as a road victory over Furman. Their two Southern Conference losses came on the road against Chattanooga and at home against Wofford. Samford's other loss came in the season opener when they played against their only FCS opponent on the year, a 48-14 loss on the road against TCU.  On offense, the Bulldogs are led by sophomore running back Denzel Williams. The sophomore back has rushed for just under 900 yards and 16 touchdowns and he's also caught 23 catches out of the backfield. Samford initially wanted him to play cornerback being that he played almost every position in high school. Funnily enough, the only position he didn't play in high school was cornerback. He seems to be more comfortable as a running back to say the least. But yes, he literally does it all. Leading receiver for these Bulldogs is another sophomore, Karel Hamilton. After catching 38 balls for 657 yards and 7 scores as a freshman, he has added 50 receptions for 810 yards and six scores as a sophomore. Both guys have proven very productive offensive players for the Bulldogs despite neither of them being highly recruited out of high school. Both of them only received scholarships from Samford as far as I can tell.

Samford's quarterback, Michael Eubank, has a much more interesting story as far as his high school recruitment was concerned. I thought I had recognized his name from some time ago, and it turns out I was right. He was a highly thought of four star recruit coming out of Centennial High School in California back in 2011. Eubank signed with Arizona State when Dennis Erickson was still coaching the Sun Devils, but with a new coach in Todd Graham being brought in as well as being behind Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici in the QB rotation, he decided a transfer was his best option. In transferring to an FCS school, he was eligible to play immediately and has done so as opposed to making the move to another FBS school where he would have had to sit out a year unless he would have been granted some kind of waiver that could have made him immediately eligible there. Eubank is a HUGE guy, checking in at 6'6" and weighing in at over 240 pounds. On the season, he has completed 168 passes on 260 attempts for 2020 yards, 11 TD passes and 6 interceptions. He has also added 235 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. So yes, the dual threat with him exists. It should be interesting to see how this offense does against an Auburn defense which has not been too good of late.

Although I certainly wouldn't expect Samford's defense to be able to keep up with Auburn's offense, they do have one very notable player garnering some NFL attention. This is senior safety,Jaquiski Tartt. This kid has had an excellent career in a Bulldog uniform. In 2012, he was a first-team All-Southern Conference and All-American selection, including being a finalist for the Buck Buchanon Award, which is given to the top defensive player in the FCS ranks. In 2013, he was again first-team All-Southern Conference along with second team All-American. If you're really into the NFL Draft process, you'll get a chance to see him play and to show what he can do against some of the best FBS players in the country in the Senior Bowl, which takes place every year in January in Mobile, Alabama as a part of the NFL Draft process. His stats for 2014 appear to be down from where they were the last couple of years. I don't know if this is because he's played injured, his level of play has dropped off, teams have been trying to avoid him or what the deal is there. He'll be the first ever Samford player to take part in the Senior Bowl, so this has to be quite the honor for him. Reading an article, it says he only played one year of football in high school, so it sounds like Samford found themselves a real diamond in the rough with him.

Okay, we all know regardless of what happens in these last two games, this one against Samford and in the Iron Bowl against Alabama, this team will have fallen well short of expectations they had of themselves and a lot of people had of them before this season began. Although Auburn is not playing at a very high level at this moment in time, they should be able to take out some frustrations they've experienced these last few weeks against a Samford team that shouldn't be able to keep up with them, especially on the defensive side of the ball. My guess is the Bulldogs are very likely to have their moments offensively with how poor the Auburn defense has looked of late, but that the Auburn offense should be able to get back on track after scoring just 7 points against Georgia and should do plenty to control this game and get the Tigers their 8th victory on the season.

My Call: Auburn 55, Samford 20